本片与一个简单的问题有关。 This is a film about one very simple question.
我们（人类）是如何来到这个世界上的？ How did we get here?
一些元素和化合物构成了人类的身体。 These are the elements and compounds from which all humans are made.
它们极为普通。 They're incredibly, almost embarrassingly common.
事实上，人体的99%都是由水、空气、 In fact, almost 99% of the human body is a mixture of air, water,
煤、白垩构成，还有少许其他的一些元素， coal and chalk, with traces of other slightly more exotic elements
如铁、锌、磷、硫。 like iron, zinc, phosphorus and sulphur.
实际上一个人所包含的化学元素 In fact, I've estimated that the elements
最多只值几英镑。 which make up the average human cost at most a few pounds.
但非常奇妙的是，万亿计的这些普通原子组合在一起 But somehow, trillions of these very ordinary atoms conspire miraculously
形成了会思考、会呼吸的活生生的人。 to organise themselves into thinking, breathing, living human beings.
由简单的物质如何创造出这样的奇迹 How the wonders of creation are assembled from such simple
的确是一个让人着迷的问题。 building blocks, is surely the most intriguing question we can ask.
你也许认为科学不能回答这个问题， You may think that answering it is beyond the realm of science.
但情况正在改变。 But that's changing.
我认为，当下的科学第一次超越了宗教 For the first time, I believe science has pushed past religion
和哲学，勇敢地探索各种难题的基本原理。 and philosophy in daring to tackle this most fundamental of questions.
本片讲述了一系列奇异 This film is the story of a series of bizarre
且相互联系的科学发现， 它们揭示出大自然隐秘的一面。 and interconnected discoveries that reveal a hidden face of nature.
交织在最简单、最基本的大自然法则中的 That woven into its simplest and most basic laws,
是一股不能被预测的力量。 is a power to be unpredictable.
本片讲述了这股力量如何把简单的物质 It's about how inanimate matter with no purpose or design,
自然而然地形成极其精致的美丽； can spontaneously create exquisite beauty.
同样的法则，如何造成了宇宙的混乱 It's about how the same laws that make the universe chaotic
和不可预知，却能把尘埃转变为人类； and unpredictable, can turn simple dust into human beings.
人们如何发现秩序和混乱之间有着 It's about the discovery that there is a strange
奇特和意想不到的关系。 and unexpected relationship between order and chaos.
自然界看上去的确非常混乱， The natural world really is one great, blooming, buzzing confusion.
各种怪异的形状和斑块相互混杂。 It's a mess of quirky shapes and blotches.
各种模式从来都不是非常的有规律， What patterns there are, are never quite regular,
似乎也绝不精确地重复。 and never seem to repeat exactly.
有一种观点，即：所有的混乱无序 The idea that all this mayhem, all this chaos, is underpinned,
都可由数学法则得到支持和确定， indeed determined, by mathematical rules,
并且我们能得出那些法则可能的情况， and that we can work out what those rules might be,
与人类的直觉很难一致。 runs counter to our most dearly held intuitions.
所以，并不令人吃惊的是，第一个 真正开始这一重大的 So not surprisingly, the first man to really take on the momentous task
解析神秘的大自然数学的人 of unravelling nature's mysterious mathematics,
禀赋非凡。 had a very special and unusual mind.
他既是一个伟大的科学家，也是一个悲剧式英雄。 He was both a great scientist and a tragic hero.
1912年他出生在伦敦。 He was born in 1912, in London.
他就是阿兰. 图灵（Alan Turing）。 His name was Alan Turing.
图灵是一个非凡的人， Alan Turing was a remarkable man,
是有史以来最伟大的数学家之一。 one of the greatest mathematicians who ever lived.
他探索了许多基本思想 He discovered many of the fundamental ideas
那些思想成为现代计算机的基础。 that underpin the modern computer.
在二次世界大战中， Also, during the Second World War,
他在布莱奇利公园（Bletchley Park）工作， 就在今天的米尔顿.凯恩斯镇的外面， he worked here at Bletchley Park, just outside today's Milton Keynes,
服务于当时英国政府名为“Station X”， in what was then a secret government project called Station X,
破译德军密码的秘密计划。 which was set up to crack the German military codes.
“Station X”计划非常有成效， The Station X code breakers proved highly effective,
图灵在其中的贡献至关重要。 and Turing's contribution was crucial.
他个人所做的破译密码工作， The work he personally did to crack German naval codes,
拯救了数以千计的盟军战士， 并使战争的转折点得以到来。 saved thousands of Allied lives and was a turning point in the war.
破译密码是图灵天才的一面， But code breaking was just one aspect of Turing's genius.
也仅是他发现各种模式的神奇能力之一， Just one part of his uncanny ability to see patterns
这种能力对我们大多数人大门紧闭。 that are hidden from the rest of us.
对图灵而言，大自然提供了终极密码， For Turing, the natural world offered up the ultimate codes.
他全部一生 And over the course of his life
都在急切地接近并破译这个密码。 he'd come tantalisingly close to cracking them.
图灵是一个非常有创意的人。 Turing was a very original person.
他意识到一种可能性， And he had realised that there was this possibility
简单的数学方程式 that simple mathematical equations
或许可以用来描述生物学中的问题， might describe aspects of the biological world.
此前还没人考虑过这个方法。 And no-one had thought of that before.
自然界的所有秘密中，最使图灵着迷的 Of all nature's mysteries, the one that fascinated Turing most
是这样的一个想法：也许人类的智力现象 was the idea that there might be a mathematical basis
是建立在数学的基础上。 to human intelligence.
图灵对此有他个人的相信理由。 Turing had very personal reasons for believing in this.
正是这位年轻人的离去，Christopher Morcom， It was the death of this young man, Christopher Morcom,
他...图灵...呃，他是个同志。 who...Alan Turing, well, he was gay,
那是图灵当时生命中最大的情感悲伤， and it had been the great emotional thing of his life at that point.
Christopher Morcom突然离去， Christopher Morcom suddenly died.
图灵显然情绪受挫， And, Alan Turing was obviously very emotionally disturbed by this.
然而可以看到，图灵想把此时的感受 But you can see that he wanted to put this
用科学的眼光加以考察。 in an intellectual context, a scientific context.
他提出一个问题， And the question he wanted to put into context was
头脑中发生了什么，这个“发生”是什么？ what happens to the mind? What is it?
图灵开始确信数学可以用来描述 Turing became convinced that mathematics could be used to describe
生命系统甚至是人类的智力。 biological systems, and ultimately intelligence.
图灵的想法将使他对现代计算机产生贡献， This fascination would give rise to the modern computer,
并帮助他在日后升起一个更为超前的想法， and later in Turing's life, an even more radical idea.
即：用一个简单的数学公式 The idea that a simple mathematical description could be given
来描述神秘的胚胎发育过程。 for a mysterious process that takes place in an embryo.
此过程被称为形态发生，非常令人费解。 The process is called morphogenesis, and it's very puzzling.
最初，胚胎内所有的细胞都是一致的， At first, all the cells in the embryo are identical.
而后，鱼类胚胎的一组连续镜头显示， Then, as this footage of a fish embryo shows,
细胞先是聚集， the cells begin to clump together,
然后开始分化。 and also become different from each other.
这是怎么发生的？不经过思考， How does this happen? With no thought,
没有统一协调？ no central co-ordination?
为什么起初相同的细胞有些变成皮肤， How do cells that start off identical, know to become say, skin,
而有些则变成了眼睛的一部分？ while others become part of an eye?
形态发生是一个又可称作自组织的有趣例子。 Morphogenesis is a spectacular example of something called self-organisation. .
在图灵之前，没人知道形态发生是怎么进行的。 And before Turing, no-one had a clue how it worked.
然而，1952年，图灵发表了他的论文， Then, in 1952, Turing published this, his paper
用数学来解释形态发生。 with the world's first mathematical explanation for morphogenesis.
这篇论文大胆到令人震惊。 The sheer chutzpah of this paper was staggering.
图灵在论文里使用了一个 In it, Turing used a mathematical equation
在天文学和原子物理学里常见的数学方程， of the kind normally seen in papers on astronomy or atomic physics,
来描述一个生命的过程。 to describe a living process.
没人做过这样的事。 No-one had done anything like this.
重要的是，图灵的方程做到了， Crucially, Turing's equations did, for the first time,
描述了一个生物系统如何实现自组织。 describe how a biological system could self-organise.
一个平稳且无特征的系统可以发展出某些特征来。 They showed that something smooth and featureless can develop features.
图灵的工作让人吃惊的一处， One of the astonishing things about Turing's work
是先用一个非常简单的方程， was that starting with the description
描述一个非常简单的过程， of really very simple processes
然后把两者合二为一， governed by very simple equations, by putting these together,
复杂性突然出现了。 suddenly complexity emerged.
自然而然地，某种模式突然出现了。 The pattern suddenly came out as a natural consequence.
我认为这非常出人意料。 And I think in many ways this was very, very unexpected.
本质上讲，图灵的方程描述了一些我们非常熟悉的东西， In essence, Turing's equations described something quite familiar,
但是之前没人从生物学的角度上考虑过。 but which no-one had thought of in the context of biology before.
试想平稳的风吹过沙地后 Think of the way a steady wind blowing across sand
沙地形成的各种形态。 creates all kinds of shapes.
沙粒自组织成为小波纹、大波纹和沙丘， The grains self-organise into ripples, waves and dunes.
尽管沙粒与沙粒极为相似， This happens, even though the grains are virtually identical,
也没有它们要成为的某个形状的认知。 and have no knowledge of the shapes they become part of.
图灵指出，以一种非常相似的方式， Turing argued that in a very similar way,
渗出到胚胎各处的化学物质， chemicals seeping across an embryo
可能引发细胞自组织成为不同的器官。 might cause its cells to self-organise into different organs.
这些是图灵关于胚胎自组织的粗糙看法， These are Turing's own very rough scribblings of how this might work.
它们显示出一团完全没有形态特征的的化学粘液 They show how a completely featureless chemical soup,
能发展出各种斑点和斑块。 can evolve these strange blobs and patches.
在论文中，他精炼了他的想法， In his paper, he refined his sketches
用以表明他的方程如何自然地产生出 to show how his equations could spontaneously create markings
与动物皮肤上类似的斑纹。 similar to those on the skins of animals.
图灵四处走动，向人们展示他的图片， Turing went around showing people pictures saying,
并问他们 “这个图案像不像奶牛身体上的图案？” "Doesn't this look a bit like the patterns on a cow?"
然后每个人都会好奇，“这人想干啥呢？” And everyone sort of went, "What is this man on about?"
实际上，图灵很清楚他在干什么。 But actually, he knew what he was doing.
那些图案的确与奶牛身上的类似， They did look like the patterns of a cow, and that's one of
那也是奶牛们的身体上具有斑块图案的原因之一。 the reasons why cows have this dappled pattern or whatever.
因此，在这个从未使用过数学的领域， So, an area where mathematics had never been used before,
生物学中的结构模式问题， 动物的斑纹问题， pattern formation in biology, animal markings,
突然间对数学开放了， suddenly the door was opened and we could see
在这类领域数学可能是有用的。 that mathematics might be useful in that sort of area.
即使图灵的方程式只是本片的开始， So even though Turing's exact equations are not the full story,
它们也是人类初次用数学方法 they are the first piece of mathematical work that showed
表明了研究上述事物的可能性。 there was any possibility of doing this kind of thing.
当然，我们现在知道了， Of course, we now know that morphogenesis
形态发生的具体过程要比图灵的方程式复杂得多。 is much more complicated than the process Turing's equations describe.
实际上，科学家们仍然在激烈争论 In fact, the precise mechanism of how DNA molecules in our cells interact
细胞内DNA与其他分子互动的精确的机制。 with other chemicals, is still fiercely debated by scientists.
就图灵的观点而言，无论发生什么， But Turing's idea that whatever is going on is, deep down,
各种现象的表面之下都有一个简单的数学过程， 这种观点真的具有革命性。 a simple mathematical process, was truly revolutionary.
我认为图灵的论文也许就是 I think Alan Turing's paper is probably the cornerstone
形态发生理论的基石。 in the whole idea of how morphogenesis works.
它为我们提供了模式是怎样出现的机制， What it does is it provides us with a mechanism,
这是达尔文没有做到的。 something that Darwin didn't, for how pattern emerges.
达尔文告诉我们，一旦生物具有了某种模式， Darwin, of course, tells us that once you have a pattern
此模式将以编码的形式存在于基因中， 能不能传递到后代中去， and it is coded for in the genes, that may or may not be passed on,
由环境状况决定， depending on circumstances. But what it doesn't do
但他没有解释模式最初是怎么形成的， is explain where that pattern comes from in the first place.
真的很神秘。 That's the real mystery.
因此，图灵的工作立刻提供了 And so, what Turing had done was to suddenly provide
一种可用的化学机制来解释模式形成， 真的是太棒了。 an accessible chemical mechanism for doing this. That was amazing.
图灵涉入了一个实在大胆想法， Turing was onto a really big, bold idea.
糟糕的是，我们只能猜测他出众的头脑 But sadly, we can only speculate how his extraordinary mind
怎样发展出他的设想。 would have developed his idea.
在他发表了有关形态发生的开创性论文后不久， Shortly after his groundbreaking paper on morphogenesis,
一场完全可以避免的灾难毁了他的生活。 a dreadful and completely avoidable tragedy destroyed his life.
在布莱奇利公园做了大量破译密码的工作后， After his work breaking codes at Bletchley Park,
你也许会认为图灵能得到荣誉， you might well have assumed that Turing would have been honoured
受到这个国家尊敬。 by the country he did so much to protect.
事实并非如此。 This couldn't be further from the truth.
战后悲剧在他的身上发生。 What happened to him after the war was a great tragedy,
那也是不列颠科学史上最不光彩的事件之一。 and one of the most shameful episodes in the history of British science.
在他发表形态发生论文的同年， The same year Turing published his morphogenesis paper,
他与一个叫阿诺 马里的男子有过短暂的韵事。 he had a brief affair with a man called Arnold Murray.
他们的关系变味了， The affair went sour
马里涉嫌进入图灵家中行窃。 and Murray was involved in a burglary at Turing's house.
当图灵将此事报告给警察， But when Turing reported this to the police,
警察却同时将图灵和马里逮捕了。 they arrested him as well as Murray.
法庭上，检察官主张 In court, the prosecution argued
受过高等教育的图灵让马里堕落了。 that Turing, with his university education, had led Murray astray.
图灵因为下流行为背叛有罪。 He was convicted of gross indecency.
法官让图灵做了一个选择， The judge then offered Turing a dreadful choice.
去监狱服刑或是定期注射 He could either go to prison, or sign up to a regime of
雌激素治疗他的同性恋欲。 female hormone injections to cure him of his homosexuality.
图灵选择了后者，后者使他陷入反复抑郁。 He chose the latter, and it was to send him into a spiral of depression.
1954年6月8日，图灵的尸体被人发现， On 8 June 1954, Turing's body was found by his cleaner.
他死于前一天，他咬了一口苹果（今日苹果电脑的LOGO） He'd died the day before by taking a bite from an apple
苹果上有他自己添加的氰化物。 he'd laced with cyanide, ending his own life.
阿兰 图灵只活了41岁。 Alan Turing died aged just 41.
对于科学的损失无法估算。 The loss to science is incalculable.
图灵不会知道，他的设想将激发 Turing would never know that his ideas would inspire
一个全新的用数学方法研究生物学的途径， an entirely new mathematical approach to biology,
学者们将会找到一些类似图灵的方程式 and that scientists would find equations like his
确实能解释出现在生物体上的各种形态。 really do explain many of the shapes that appear on living organisms.
回顾历史，我们知道，图灵真的抓住了 Looking back, we now know Turing had really grasped the idea
各种奇迹源于简单法则的那种想法。 that the wonders of creation are derived from the simplest of rules.
也许出人意料的是，他已经 He had, perhaps unexpectedly, taken the first step
向一种新的科学迈出了第一步。 to a new kind of science.
第二次的科学发现同样也很意外， The next step in the story was just as unexpected,
在许多方面，也如图灵般的悲惨。 and in many ways, just as tragic as Turing's.
50年代早期，大约在图灵发表开创性论文的同时， In the early 1950s, around the time of Turing's seminal paper
一位才华横溢的俄罗斯化学家 on morphogenesis, a brilliant Russian chemist by the name of
鲍里斯 别洛乌索夫（Boris Belousov）开始了自己的工作， Boris Belousov was beginning his own investigations
研究自然的化学现象。 into the chemistry of nature.
在铁幕（冷战）的后面，苏维埃卫生部的一间实验室里， Deep behind the iron curtain, in a lab at the Soviet Ministry of Health,
他开始研究身体 he was beginning to investigate the way our bodies
如何利用糖类物质的能量。 extract energy from sugars.
与图灵相似，别洛乌索夫研究自己的课题， Just like Turing, Belousov was working on a personal project, having
他刚刚出色地完成了在军队中的任务。 just finished a distinguished career as a scientist in the military.
在实验室中，别洛乌索夫配制了化学药品混合物 In his lab, Belousov had formulated a mixture of chemicals
模拟身体对葡萄糖吸收的部分过程。 to mimic one part of the process of glucose absorption in the body.
化学混合物放在试验台上， The mix of chemicals sat on the lab bench in front of him,
搅拌时透明无色。 clear and colourless while being shaken.
当他添加了最后一种药品时， 溶液的颜色变了。 As he mixed in the final chemical, the whole solution changed colour.
这现象并不很特别。 Now this isn't particularly remarkable.
如果我们把墨汁倒入水中，水也会变色。 If we mix ink into water, it changes colour.
随后奇怪的现象发生了， But then something happened that made no sense at all.
混合物又变得透明了， The mixture began to go clear again.
别洛乌索夫大吃一惊。 Belousov was astounded.
化学物质可以混合在一起并反应， Chemicals can mix together and react.
但反应后不可能自己又变回去， But they shouldn't be able to go back on themselves,
没有干预时，不可能“去混合”的。 to apparently unmix without intervention.
透明的混合物可以变成有色的混合物，很好， You can change from a clear mixture to a coloured mixture, fine.
但能肯定不变回去吗？ But surely not back again?
越来越怪异了。 And it got weirder.
别洛乌索夫的混合物不仅仅自发地产生逆转， Belousov's chemicals didn't just spontaneously go into reverse.
而是反复逆转（化学振荡）。 They oscillated.
混合物从有色到无色来回变化， They switched back and forth from coloured to clear,
似乎被某种隐藏的化学节拍器驱使着。 as if they were being driven by some sort of hidden chemical metronome.
别洛乌索夫非常小心地重复这个实验。 With meticulous care, he repeated his experiments again and again.
每一次的现象都是一模一样。 It was the same every time.
混合物的颜色会周期性的反复逆转。 His mixture would cycle from clear to coloured and back again, repeatedly.
他发现魔术般事情， He'd discovered something that was almost like magic,
其物理过程似乎违反了自然定律。 a physical process that seemed to violate the laws of nature.
确信自己有了重要的发现， 'Convinced he'd discovered something of great importance, Belousov
别洛乌索夫详细描写了这个发现，并渴望与更多人分享。 'wrote up his findings, keen to share his discovery with the wider world.
但当他把论文提交给一家顶级的俄罗斯科学杂志后， 'But when he submitted his paper to a leading Russian scientific journal,
他收到了完全意想不到的无法接受的回复。 'he received a wholly unexpected and damning response.'
杂志编辑告诉他，他在实验室中的 The editor of the journal told Belousov that his findings in the lab
发现是不可能的， were quite simply impossible.
那些发现违反了物理学的基本定律， They contravened the fundamental laws of physics.
他的实验出错了， The only explanation was that Belousov had made a mistake
这篇论文不适合发表。 in his experiment, and the work was simply not fit for publication.
别洛乌索夫被退稿击倒了。 'The rejection crushed Belousov.
拙劣的修改建议深深侮辱了他， 'Deeply insulted by the suggestion his work had been botched,
他最终放弃了实验， 'he abandoned his experiments.
很快他也完全放弃了科学。 'Soon he gave up science altogether.'
更悲惨的是，由于两人被铁幕（冷战）分隔， The tragic irony was that, divided as they were by the Iron Curtain,
别洛乌索夫从来没读过图灵的论文。 Belousov never encountered Turing's work.
如果他读过，他就可以得到充分的辩解。 For if he had, he would have been completely vindicated.
人们最终发现，别氏的化学振荡反应 It turns out that Belousov's oscillating chemicals,
根本就不违反物理学定律， far from contravening the laws of physics,
正好是图灵方程式所预测的 were actually a real world example
真实世界中的一个实例。 of precisely the behaviour Turing's equations predicted.
乍看之下，似乎并无明显联系， While the connection might not appear obvious at first sight,
别的科学家证明，如果把别氏化学物 other scientists showed that if you left a variation
放在培养皿中，不加搅拌， of Belousov's chemicals, unstirred in a Petri dish,
此时溶液会自组织形成各种形状，而不是化学振荡， instead of simply oscillating, they self-organise into shapes.
实际上，那些形状超过简单的图灵泡泡和条纹 In fact, they go beyond Turing's simple blobs and stripes
凭空产生出让人震惊的美丽结构和模式 to create stunningly beautiful structures and patterns . out of nowhere.
令人意外和吃惊是在BZ 反应（化学振荡反应的一种）中 The amazing and very unexpected thing about the BZ reaction
有人发现了一个 is that someone had discovered a system
可以重现图灵方程的系统。 which essentially reproduces the Turing equations.
一种看起来非常平淡无奇的溶液 And so, from what looks like a very, very bland solution
形成这些惊人的波浪、卷曲、螺旋的模式。 emerge these astonishing patterns of waves and scrolls and spirals.
强调一下，这并非是抽象的科学。 Now this is emphatically not abstract science.
别氏化学物质以协同波的方式运动， The way Belousov's chemicals move as co-ordinated waves
与人类心肌细胞的协同收缩完全一样。 is exactly the way our heart cells are co-ordinated as they beat.
从动物的皮肤到心跳， Animal skins and heart beats.
在自然世界的各处似乎都有自组织运转着。 Self-organisation seems to operate all over the natural world.
那么为什么在图灵和别洛乌索夫的时代， So why were the scientific community in Turing and Belousov's day,
科学界对如此美丽惊人的想法不感兴趣，甚至是敌对？ so uninterested, or even hostile to this astonishing and beautiful idea?
嗯，原因是太主观了。 Well, the reason was all too human.
主流科学家完全不喜欢它。 Mainstream scientists simply didn't like it.
它看上去与科学及其 To them it seemed to run counter to science,
一切成就背道而驰。 and all that it had achieved.
改变那种观点需要强有力和 To change that view would require a truly shocking
完全出人意料的发现。 and completely unexpected discovery.
基本上，到20世纪初， In essence, by the beginning of the 20th century,
科学家把宇宙视为一个 scientists saw the universe as a giant,
巨大、复杂的机械装置， complicated, mechanical device.
就像一个超大版的太阳系仪。 Kind of a super-sized version of this orrery.
这种观点下，宇宙是一个巨大和复杂的机器 The idea was that the universe is a huge and intricate machine
服从着有序的数学法则。 that obeys orderly mathematical rules.
如果你知道这台机器的运转规则， If you knew the rules of how the machine was configured to start with,
当你转动连续这个手柄， as you turned the handle, over and over again,
系统就会按照完全可预测的方式运行。 it would behave in an entirely predictable way.
回到牛顿的时代， Back in the times of Isaac Newton
当人们探索驱动宇宙的法则时， when people were discovering the laws that drove the universe,
他们得到一个类似时钟结构的宇宙象征 they came up with this kind of metaphor of a clockwork universe.
宇宙就像一台机器， The universe looked like a machine which had been set going at the
按照一定的规则运行着。 instant of creation and just followed the rules and ticked along.
这台机器很复杂，因此复杂的情况时常发生。 And it was a complicated machine and therefore complicated things happen.
但一旦你设定好它，它就只会按照你的设定运行。 But once you set it going it would only do one thing,
人们由此得到信息， and the message that people drew from this
可被数学法则描述的任何事情， was that anything describable by mathematical rules
必须是非常简单的。 must actually basically be fairly simple.
找出描述一个系统的数学方法， Find the mathematics that describes a system
接着你就可以预测事情会如何变化。 and you can then predict how that system will unfold.
这是一个很重要的思想。 That was the big idea.
它开始于牛顿的重力法则， It began with Newton's law of gravity
可以用来预测行星围绕太阳的移动。 which can be used to predict how a planet moves around the sun.
科学家很快发现了许多类似的方程式。 Scientists soon found many other equations just like it.
牛顿物理学似乎就是终极水晶球， Newtonian physics seemed like the ultimate crystal-ball.
支撑起一种诱人的可能性， It held up the tantalising possibility
即：原理上，未来是可知的。 that the future could, in principle, be known.
今天你测量得越仔细， The more careful your measurements are today,
你就可以更准确地预知明天。 the better you can predict what will happen tomorrow.
但是牛顿学说有一个危险的推论， But Newtonianism had a dangerous consequence.
如果某个数学系统，以太阳系仪相似的方式运作， If a nice mathematical system, that worked in a similar way
而有时变得不可预测，科学家就假定 to my orrery, did sometimes become unpredictable, scientists assumed
那是外部因素引起的。也许是进灰尘了？ some malign outside force was causing it. Perhaps dirt had got in?
也许是齿轮磨损了？ Perhaps the cogs were wearing out?
抑或是某人对它做了手脚？ Or perhaps someone had tampered with it?
我们以前常认为，如果你研究的事物出现了 Basically we used to think, if you saw very irregular behaviour
毫无规律的状态，那一定是某些 in some problem you're working on, this must be the result of some sort
随机外来干扰的结果，不可能是从它自己内部产生的。 of random outside influences, it couldn't be internally generated.
那不是你研究的事物所固有的， It wasn't an intrinsic part of the problem,
有其他事情在影响它。 it was some other thing impacting on it.
从这个观点出发， Looked at from this point of view,
自组织的整个观念似乎有些荒唐。 the whole idea of self-organisation seemed absurd.
图灵和别洛乌索夫发现的这类模式 The idea that patterns of the kind Turing and Belousov had found
在没有外部影响的情况下能出现 could appear of their own accord,
与它们自身一致的这种观点，完全是一个禁忌。 without any outside influence, was a complete taboo.
自组织能被人接受的唯一途径 The only way for self-organisation to be accepted
是权威的牛顿学说观点的崩溃。 was for the domineering Newtonian view to collapse.
但那似乎不太可能。 But that seemed very unlikely.
毕竟，到19世纪60年代后期 After all, by the late '60s it had delivered
牛顿体系为现代社会公贡献良多。 all the wonders of the modern age.
“真美，真的美。” Beautiful, beautiful.
“真是华丽丽的荒凉！” Ain't that something? Magnificent desolation.
与登月计划同时， But then, at the same time as the moon mission,
一组忠于牛顿学说的科学家， a small group of scientists, all ardent Newtonians,
十分意外地发现了一些异常的、 quite unexpectedly found something wasn't right.
根本就是错误的情况。 Not right at all.
在20世纪中期， During the second half of the 20th century,
有个魔鬼被充分暴露出来， 那个魔鬼将最终 a devil was found in the detail. A devil that would ultimately
粉碎牛顿学说信仰者的梦， 并将我们完全带入一片混乱。 shatter the Newtonian dream and plunge us literally into chaos.
讽刺的是，促使科学家认真接受自组织的事件 Ironically, the events that forced scientists to take self-organisation
是对一个叫作混沌现象的发现。 seriously was the discovery of a phenomenon known as chaos.
混沌一词是英语中最为过度使用的单词， Chaos is one of the most over-used words in English, but in science
但在科学领域它有一个特殊含义：一个被数学方程完全 it has a very specific meaning. It says that a system that is completely
描述的系统，即便没有外部干扰 described by mathematical equations is more than capable
也可能变得完全无法预测。 of being unpredictable without any outside interference whatsoever.
对混沌有一个普遍的误解，认为它就是在 There's a widespread misapprehension that chaos is just somehow saying,
讲述我们熟知的情况， 即：每一件事都是复杂的。 the very familiar fact, that everything's complicated.
我是说，侏罗纪公园里的傻子混沌主义者， I mean, the nitwit chaoticist in Jurassic Park,
就处于那种模糊混乱中。 was under that confusion.
混沌理论可以非常简单也可以很复杂， It's something much simpler and yet much more complicated than that.
它讲述了非常、非常简单的法则和方程， It says, some very, very simple rules or equations,
其中没有任何随机，完全是决定了的。 with nothing random in them, they're completely determined,
我们知道这个法则的方方面面， we know everything about the rule,
却可以出现完全不能预测的结果。 can have outcomes that are entirely unpredictable.
混沌是最不受欢迎科学发现之一。 Chaos is one of the most unwelcome discoveries in science.
促使科学界面对混沌的人 The man who forced the scientific community to confront it
是美国气象学者 爱德华 洛仑兹（Edward Lorenz）。 was an American meteorologist called Edward Lorenz.
在60年代早期，他尝试用数学方程 In the early 1960s he tried to find mathematical equations
预测天气。 that could help predict the weather.
就像所有与他同时代的人一样，他原则上相信 Like all his contemporaries, he believed that in principle
天气系统与太阳系仪没有差别， the weather system was no different to my orrery.
也是一个机械系统， A mechanical system that could be described
也能被数学描述和预报。 and predicted mathematically.
但是他错了。 But he was wrong.
当洛仑兹写下看上去非常简单的数学方程， When Lorenz wrote down what looked like perfectly simple mathematical
去描述气流的运动时， equations to describe the movement of air currents,
那些方程式并没有得到预期的结果。 they didn't do what they were supposed to.
它们没有带来任何有用的预报。 They made no useful predictions whatsoever.
就像某天某阵最轻微的风也可能 It was as if the lightest breath of wind one day could make the
造成一个月后是出现暴风雪还是大晴天的差别。 difference a month later between a snowstorm and a perfectly sunny day.
一个像太阳系仪般以时钟结构方式有规律运行的 How can a simple system that works in the regular clockwork manner
简单的系统怎么可能变得不能预测呢？ of my orrery become unpredictable?
只能回到初始的地方看看了， It's all down to how it's configured.
齿轮是怎样连接装配的？ How the gears are connected.
就根本而言，在一定情况下， In essence, under certain circumstances,
各嵌齿的初始位置有一些很微小的区别， the tiniest difference in the starting positions of the cogs,
这些差别（误差）太小了，没法测量， differences that are too small to measure,
但却随着手柄的逐次转动而增加。 can get bigger and bigger with each turn of the handle.
随着每一次的进程，系统的运动 With each step in the process the system then moves
越来越远离你所设想的情况。 further and further away from where you thought it was going.
在一次著名的谈话中洛仑兹成功地 让人注意到这个想法， Lorenz captured this radical idea in an influential talk he gave called,
“一只蝴蝶在巴西煽动一下翅膀， 会引发德克萨斯出现一场龙卷风吗？” "Does a flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?"
发挥一下你丰富的想象力吧... It was a powerful and evocative image
在数月之后，一个新的短语出现了， and within months a new phrase had entered our language.
“蝴蝶效应” "The butterfly effect."
蝴蝶效应，所有混沌系统的标签， And the butterfly effect, the hallmark of all chaotic systems,
开始泛滥四溢。 started turning up everywhere.
70年代早期，一个年轻的澳洲小伙 罗伯特 梅（Robert May）， In the early '70s, a young Australian called Robert May,
正在研究一个数学模型， was investigating a mathematical equation
描述动物种群（数量）如何随时间变化。 that modelled how animal populations changed over time.
但此研究里也潜伏了可怕的蝴蝶效应。 But here too lurked the dreaded butterfly effect.
无法测量的动物繁殖率的微小变化 Immeasurably small changes to the rates at which the animals reproduced
有时会对总体数量带来可观的后果， could sometimes have huge consequences . on their overall population.
动物数量可能会毫无理由的增加或减少。 Numbers could go up and down wildly for no obvious reason.
数学方程让你能预测系统运行的 The idea that a mathematical equation gave you the power
那种观点没用了。 to predict how a system will behave, was dead.
某种意义上，这是牛顿学说者的梦结束的地方。 In some sense this is the end of the Newtonian dream.
当我在上大学的时候，大家相信 When I was a graduate student, the belief was,
当计算机越来越强大时， as we got more and more computer power,
我们就能解决更为复杂的方程式。 we'd be able to solve ever more complicated sets of equations.
但是这不一定对。 But this said that's not necessarily true.
你可以用一个你能想到最简单的方程， You could have the simplest equations you can think of,
没有随机事件，你了解每一件事情， with nothing random in them, you know everything.
然而，如果这些方程的运行 And yet, if they have behaviour
带给了你混乱的答案， that gives you chaotic solutions,
那你就不可能精确地了解初始点的情况了。 then you can never know the starting point accurately enough.
几个世纪以来科学确定的事在几年之内就结束了。 Centuries of scientific certainty dissolved in just a few short years.
真理般时钟结构的宇宙变成了一个错觉。 The truth of the clockwork universe turned out to be just an illusion.
某些以前看上去具有逻辑必然性的事物 Something which had seemed a logical certainty,
原来只是一种信仰的表演。 revealed itself merely as an act of faith.
糟糕的是，真理从盘古以来一直在盯着我们。 And what's worse, the truth had been staring us in the face all the time.
因为混沌无所不在， Because chaos is everywhere.
不确定性似乎联系着 It seemed unpredictability was hard-wired
这个世界上的方方面面。 into every aspect of the world we live in.
全球气候可能在短短几年之内 The global climate could dramatically change
发生剧烈变化。 in the course of a few short years.
股市可能毫无预警地崩溃。 The stock markets could crash without warning.
人类可能在一夜之间从地球上被抹去， We could be wiped from the face of the planet overnight
而且众人对此也无能为力。 and there is nothing anyone could do about it.
非常不幸，我必须告诉你这全是真实的。 Unfortunately, I have to tell you that all of this is true.
然而害怕混沌也是没有意义的， And yet to be scared of chaos is pointless.
它交织在物理学基本定律中， It's woven into the basic laws of physics.
我们真的必须接受这个生命中的事实。 And we really all have to accept it as a fact of life.
混沌观点带来的影响的确超过二、三十年了， The idea of chaos really did have a big impact over a period of about 20
因为它改变了大家的思考方式， or 30 years, because it changed the way everyone thought about
让人重新审视自己在科学领域里到底在做些什么？ what they were doing in science.
混沌把这种思考改造到 It changed it to the point
我们忘记了自己曾经相信过别的东西。 that they forgot that they'd ever believed otherwise.
混沌的研究向我们展示了简单数学所具有的 What chaos did was to show us that the possibilities inherent
可能性要比我们所能设想的要宽泛和全面的多， in the simple mathematics are much broader and much more general
因此像钟表结构般的宇宙也会表现出 than you might imagine. And so a clockwork universe can
意料之外丰富和复杂的运作方式。 nonetheless behave in the rich, complex way that we experience.
混沌的发现 The discovery of chaos
是科学史上一个真正的转折点。 was a real turning point in the history of science.
当它击垮了信仰牛顿学说者的梦， As it tore down the Newtonian dream,
科学家们开始关注图灵和别洛乌索夫 scientists began to look more favourably at Turing and
研究工作中自发产生的模式结构。 Belousov's work on spontaneous pattern formation.
也许更重要的是，当他们也研究混沌时 And perhaps more importantly, as they did so,
他们认识到了一些让人惊异的事， they realised something truly astonishing.
的确有个一个意料之外的 That there was a very deep and unexpected link.
很深的宇宙联系存在于 A truly cosmic connection
未知的自然力量与自组织 between nature's strange power to self-organise
和蝴蝶效应之间。 and the chaotic consequences of the butterfly effect.
这些联系之间，图灵、别洛乌索夫、梅和洛仑兹 Between them, Turing, Belousov, May and Lorenz,
都发现了一个真正重大思想的不同方面。 had all discovered different faces of just one really big idea.
他们发现，自然世界可能极不可预测， They discovered that the natural world could be deeply,
但使事物不可预知的力量 profoundly, unpredictable. But the very same things that make it
同样也能产生出模式和结构。 unpredictable also allow it to create pattern and structure.
有序和混乱（混沌）， Order and chaos.
看起来这两者的联系 It seems the two are more deeply linked
要比我们想像的深得多。 than we could have ever imagined.
这怎么可能呢？ So how is this possible?
模式明显不同的别洛乌索夫化学反应 What do phenomena as apparently different as the patterns in
与天气现象之间会有什么相同？ Belousov's chemicals and the weather, have in common?
第一，尽管二者的运作都非常复杂， First, though both systems behave in very complicated ways,
他们其实都建立在简单的数学法则之上。 they are both based on surprisingly simple mathematical rules.
第二，这些法则具有独一无二的特性， Secondly, these rules have a unique property.
称为耦合或反馈。 A property that's often referred to as coupling, or feedback.
为了让你明白有序和混沌可以 To show you what I mean, to show you both order and chaos can emerge
从一个简单的反馈系统自发地出现， on the their own from a simple system with feedback, I'm going to do
我将做一个看起来很普通的小实验。 what seems at first glance like a rather trivial experiment.
把一个正在拍摄我的摄像头（信号）连接到我身后的屏幕。 This screen behind me is connected up to the camera that's filming me.
摄像头正在逐次拍摄屏幕和屏幕中的我。 But the camera in turn is filming me with the screen.
这样就形成了“我”多次重复的环路 This creates a loop with multiple copies of me
出现在屏幕上。 appearing on the screen.
这是一个典型反馈回路的例子。 This is a classic example of a feedback loop.
我们得到一张图像套着图像套着...的图像。 We get a picture, in a picture, in a picture.
最初，这张图像好像是可以预测的。 At first it seems fairly predictable.
但当我们放大变焦时， But as we zoom the camera in
有些非常陌生的东西出现了。 some pretty strange things begin to happen.
我最初注意到的是我手中的物体 The first thing I notice is that the object I'm filming
与屏幕上的显示的不再具有相似之处。 stops bearing much resemblance to what now appears on the screen.
火柴的微小移动被迅速放大了， Small changes in the movement of the match become rapidly amplified
因为影像在摄像头和屏幕间循环。 as they loop round from the camera to the screen and back to the camera.
因此，即使我能用数学描述过程中的每一步， So even though I can describe each step in the process mathematically,
我仍然没办法预测手中火焰微小的变化 I still have no way of predicting how tiny changes
最终在屏幕上如何变化。 in the flickering of the flame will end up in the final image.
这就是活生生的蝴蝶效应。 This is the butterfly effect in action.
但是怪异的现象来了， But now here comes the spooky bit.
给系统施加一小点调整， With just a slight tweak to the system,
这些奇特和异常美丽的模式开始出现。 these strange and rather beautiful patterns begin to emerge.
同一个系统，基于带有回馈的简单规则， The same system, one that's based on simple rules with feedback,
produces chaos and order. 产生出混乱和有序。 produces chaos and order.
The same mathematics is generating chaotic behaviour 同一个数学模型制造了混乱的行为 The same mathematics is generating chaotic behaviour
and patterned behaviour. 及有模式的行为。 and patterned behaviour.
这完全改变了你对这一切的思考方式。 This changes completely how you think about all of this.
自然界的规律性以及 The idea that there are regularities in nature and then,
完全与之不同的无规律性， totally separately from them,
是两种不同的东西， are irregularities, and these are just two different things,
is just not true. 这想法是不对的。 is just not true.
它们是运行状态的两极， These are two ends of a spectrum of behaviour
可由同一种数学模型产生。 which can be generated by the same kind of mathematics.
那是眼下我们所具有的离 真实的大自然数学最近的事。 And it's the closest thing we have at the moment to the kind of true mathematics of nature.
我认为图灵的研究和化学、生物学等的 I think one of the great take home messages from Turing's work and from
科学发现带来了一个伟大的信息， the discoveries in chemistry and biology and so on, is that
模式形成（pattern formation）最终有可能与宇宙本身 ultimately, pattern formation seems to be woven, very, very deeply
越来越紧密地连系起来，它实际上进行 into the fabric of the universe. And it actually takes some very simple
一些简单和常见的过程，比如扩散， and familiar processes, like diffusion,
比如化学反应的速率， like the rates of chemical reactions,
两者间的相互作用自然而然地产生了模式（pattern）。 and the interplay between them naturally gives rise to pattern.
因此到处都是模式（pattern）， 模式随时会发生。 So pattern is everywhere, it's just waiting to happen.
从70年代起，越来越多的科学家 From the '70s on, more and more scientists
开始接受混沌和模式 began to embrace the concept that chaos
是内建于最基本法则的观念。 and pattern are built into nature's most basic rules.
但有一个科学家从根本上为这个 时常令人迷惑和惊异的观念 But one scientist more than any other brought a fundamentally new
带来了一个全新的理解。 understanding to this astonishing and often puzzling idea.
他极富个性且独来独往。 He was a colourful character and something of a maverick.
他的名字叫伯努瓦 曼德勃罗 His name is Benoit Mandelbrot.
曼德勃罗小时候不简单。 Benoit Mandelbrot wasn't an ordinary child.
他直接跳级到三年级， He skipped the first two years of school
二战中的欧洲，这个犹太小孩经常上不了学。 and as a Jew in war-torn Europe his education was very disrupted.
大部分靠自学和亲戚的指导。 He was largely self-taught or tutored by relatives.
他从未正式学过字母表， He never formally learned the alphabet,
甚至是5以上的乘法表。 or even multiplication beyond the five times table.
但，与图灵类似， But, like Alan Turing,
曼德勃罗能发现大自然隐藏的模式。 Mandelbrot had a gift for seeing nature's hidden patterns.
我们认为无规律的他可以看出规律来。 He could see rules where the rest of us see anarchy.
他可以发现形态和结构， He could see form and structure,
而我们仅看见一团糟。 where the rest of us just see a shapeless mess.
最重要的是，他可以看到一种全新的. And above all, he could see that a strange new kind of mathematics
支撑整个自然的数学。 underpinned the whole of nature.
曼德勃罗终身在探索一个简单的 Mandelbrot's lifelong quest was to find a simple mathematical basis
真实世界中粗糙不规则形状的数学原理。 for the rough and irregular shapes of the real world.
曼德勃罗当时为IBM工作， Mandelbrot was working for IBM
没有身处于正规的学术环境， and he was not in the normal academic environment.
他有一大堆不同的工作项目， And he was working on a pile of different problems
自然界的不规则性， 金融市场， about irregularities in nature, in the financial markets,
涉及很广。 all over the place.
我认为，从某方面说，他的工作 And I think at some point it dawned on him that everything
让他明白他所做的一切都是 同一大问题的不同部分。 he was doing seen to be really parts of the same big picture.
他是一个非常原创和不凡的人， And he was a sufficiently original and unusual person that
他意识到研究这个大问题才是他真正想干的， he realised that pursuing this big picture was what
对他而言，数学荒谬地用了 he really wanted to do. To Mandelbrot, it seemed perverse that
几个世纪去关注理想化的形状， mathematicians had spent centuries contemplating idealised shapes
比如直线或圆。 like straight lines or perfect circles.
却还没有恰当或系统化的方法来描述 And yet had no proper or systematic way of describing the rough
真实世界中粗糙和不完整的形状。 and imperfect shapes that dominate the real world.
比如这个小卵石， Take this pebble.
Is it a sphere or a cube? 是圆形还是立方形？ Is it a sphere or a cube?
或兼具两者？ Or maybe a bit of both?
那么很大的物体呢？比如我身后的拱， And what about something much bigger? Look at the arch behind me.
远处看，有点像半圆， From a distance, it looks like a semi-circle.
近处再看，是弯曲的。 But up close, we see that it's bent and crooked.
那它是什么形状呢？ So what shape is it?
曼德勃罗思考着是否有独特的方法 Mandelbrot asked if there's something unique
来定义自然界中不同的形状。 that defines all the varied shapes in nature.
棉花般的云、河流及树木的分支、 Do the fluffy surfaces of clouds, the branches in trees and rivers,
不规则的海岸线，是否都具有共同的数学特性？ the crinkled edges of shorelines, share a common mathematical feature?
唛，真呢是呢。 Well, they do.
自然界几乎所有形状的后面都有 Underlying nearly all the shapes in the natural world is a mathematical
一个叫作自相似的数学原理。描述任何 principle known as self-similarity. This describes anything in which the
相同形状在越来越小的尺度上一直重复的事物。 same shape is repeated over and over again at smaller and smaller scales.
河流的分支就是一个好例子。 A great example are the branches of trees.
分支上有分支，一再重复那种简单过程， They fork and fork again, repeating that simple process
而且尺度越来越小。 over and over at smaller and smaller scales.
肺的分支遵循同样的原理。 The same branching principle applies in the structure of our lungs
人类的血管也靠同样的方式分布在身体里。 and the way our blood vessels are distributed throughout our bodies.
这个原理甚至描述了河流如何分支成小溪。 It even describes how rivers split into ever smaller streams.
大自然可以用此方式重复各种形状。 And nature can repeat all sorts of shapes in this way.
看看罗马花椰菜， Look at this Romanesco broccoli.
整个结构都由一系列在越来越小的尺度上 Its overall structure is made up of a series of repeating cones
重复的圆锥构成。 at smaller and smaller scales.
曼德勃罗捕捉到自相似 Mandelbrot realised self-similarity
是一类全新的几何学的基础。 was the basis of an entirely new kind of geometry.
他甚至给它取了一个名字——分形。 And he even gave it a name - fractal.
那是一个相当简明的观察结果。 Now, that's a pretty neat observation.
但假设用数学来表达这种自然属性会怎么样？ But what if you could represent this property of nature in mathematics?
假设你用抽取出其本质并作图会怎样？ What if you could capture its essence to draw a picture?
作出的图会是什么样的呢？ What would that picture look like?
你能用一套简单的数学法则 Could you use a simple set of mathematical rules
画一幅不像是人画的画吗？ to draw an image that didn't look man-made?
曼德勃罗会给出答案的， The answer would come from Mandelbrot.
他从50年代后期就为IBM工作了， Who had taken a job at IBM in the late 1950s
为的就是能接触到强大的计算机， to gain access to its incredible computing power
并执着地探索大自然中的数学。 and pursue his obsession with the mathematics of nature.
武装了新式的超级计算机后， Armed with a new breed of super-computer,
他开始研究一个非常有趣 he began investigating a rather curious
看上去也很简单的方程。 and strangely simple-looking equation
那个方程可以画出非常罕见的图形。 that could be used to draw a very unusual shape.
我要给你看的是最奇异的数学图形之一， What I'm about to show you is one of the most remarkable
史诗也没有充分评价过它。 mathematical images ever discovered. Epic doesn't really do it justice.
这就是曼德勃罗集， This is the Mandelbrot set.
被称为上帝的指纹， It's been called the thumbprint of God.
当我们探究它时，你就会明白为什么了。 And when we begin to explore it, you'll understand why.
就像树木或罗马花椰菜， Just as with the tree or the broccoli,
观察这幅图形，距离越近你看到越多细节。 the closer you study this picture, the more detail you see.
集里的每一个形状
包含了无限数目的小形状， Each shape within the set contains an infinite number of smaller shapes.
子曼德勃罗集可以持续下去... Baby Mandelbrots that go on for ever.
然而所有这些复杂的结构可由一个简单的方程得到。 Yet all this complexity stems from just one incredibly simple equation.
此方程有一个非常重要的性质， This equation has a very important property.
它可以自我反馈。 It feeds back on itself.
每个输出值成为下一次运算的输入值。 Like a video loop, each output becomes the input for the next go.
这种反馈意味着一个奇妙的简单数学方程 This feedback means that an incredibly simple mathematical
可以产生无限复杂的图形。 equation can produce a picture of infinite complexity.
令人着迷的是， The really fascinating thing
曼德勃罗集并非仅仅是个数学奇想。 is that the Mandelbrot set isn't just a bizarre mathematical quirk.
它在所有尺度上具有相似性的分形属性 Its fractal property of being similar at all scales
反映出自然界一个基本的有序原则。 mirrors a fundamental ordering principle in nature.
图灵的模式、别洛乌索夫反应 和曼德勃罗的分形 Turing's patterns, Belousov's reaction and Mandelbrot's fractals
全部指向一个深藏的宇宙法则。 are all signposts pointing to a deep underlying natural principle.
当我们观察自然的复杂性，我们会问， When we look at complexities in nature, we tend to ask,
那是怎么一回事？ "Where did they come from?"
头脑冒出某种声音说 There is something in our heads that says
复杂性不是从简单性而来 complexity does not arise out of simplicity.
而是从复杂而来。我们保有复杂。 It must arise from something complicated. We conserve complexity.
但此领域中的数学告诉我们的是 But what the mathematics in this whole area is telling us
非常简单的规则可以自然地导致极复杂事物的发生。 is that very simple rules naturally give rise to very complex objects.
观察这个事物，思考它的内在法则， And so if you look at the object, it looks complex, and you think about
法则很简单。 the rule that generates it, it's simple.
同一事物既是简单的也是复杂的， So the same thing is both complex and simple
那么我们就得重新考虑 from two different points of view. And that means we have to rethink
简单性和复杂性之间关系了。 completely the relation between simplicity and complexity.
复杂的系统可以建立在简单法则上。 Complex systems can be based on simple rules.
那是一个重大的发现， That's the big revelation.
也是一个惊人的想法， And it's an astonishing idea.
似乎适用于这个世界的方方面面。 It seems to apply all over our world.
看看这一大群的飞鸟，每一只鸟都遵守着简单的法则， Look at a flock of birds. Each bird obeys very simple rules.
但鸟群整体上确实极为复杂。 But the flock as a whole does incredibly complicated things.
没有单一的首领，却能躲开障碍，翱翔天际， Avoiding obstacles, navigating the planet with no single leader
甚至能事先计划。鸟群的活动蔚为壮观， or even conscious plan. But amazing though this flock's behaviour is,
无法预测。 it's impossible to predict how it will behave.
这种活动从不精确重复， It never repeats exactly what it does,
即使是在看似相似的情况下。 even in seemingly identical circumstances.
就像别洛乌索夫反应， It's just like the Belousov reaction.
每一次反应的模式都会有些许差别， Each time you run it, the patterns produced are slightly different.
只是看上去相似，但绝不会完全一样。 They may look similar, but they are never identical.
视频环路和沙丘的现象也是一样。 The same is true of video loops and sand dunes.
我们知道会有某种模式发生， We know they'll produce a certain kind of pattern,
但我们无法准确预测它的形态。 but we can't predict the exact shapes.
一个重要问题是，大自然具有以神秘和 The big question is, can nature's ability to turn simplicity
不可预知的方式把简单转化为复杂的能力， into complexity in this mysterious and unpredictable way
这种能力可以解释为什么生命存在吗？ explain why life exists?
能解释为什么满是简单尘埃的宇宙 Can it explain how a universe full of simple dust
可以产生出人类？ can turn into human beings?
为什么没有生命的物质能孕育智慧？ How inanimate matter can spawn intelligence?
刚开始时，你可能认为这些问题超出了科学的范围。 At first, you might think that this is beyond the remit of science.
如果自然具有不可预知的法则， If nature's rules are really unpredictable,
那我们就放弃了吗？ should we simply give up?
绝对不是的，实际上，完全相反。 Absolutely not. In fact, quite the opposite.
问题的答案就在大自然之中。 Fittingly, the answer to this problem lies in the natural world.
在我们四周，有一个过程驱动着 All around us, there exists a process that engineers
这些复杂的系统， these unpredictable complex systems
并且使它们完成不可思议的任务， and hones them to perform almost miraculous tasks.
这个进程叫作进化。 The process is called evolution.
进化建立在这些模式上， Evolution has built on these patterns.
并把各种模式作为材料， It's taken them as the raw ingredients.
然后通过不同方式将它们组合起来， It's combined them together in various ways,
去试验哪种能行，哪种不行。 experimented to see what works and what doesn't,
保留能够运转的，并且以它为基础继续下去。 kept the things that do work and then built on that.
这完全是一个无意识的过程， It's a completely unconscious process,
进化就是这样持续的。 but basically that's what's happening.
每一个地方你都可以看到进化 Everywhere you look, you can see evolution
正在使用自然的自组织模式。 using nature's self-organising patterns.
人类的心脏利用别洛乌索夫式的反应调节系统。 Our hearts use Belousov-type reactions to regulate how they beat.
我们的血管具有分形的组织方式。 Our blood vessels are organised like fractals.
我们的脑细胞采用简单的法则互动。 Even our brain cells interact according to simple rules.
进化改进和丰富复杂系统的途径 The way evolution refines and enriches complex systems
是当今科学中最吸引人的谜题之一。 is one of the most intriguing ideas in recent science.
我读博士研究的是复杂系统， My interest in my PhD research in complex systems was to see
我对复杂系统与进化的相互作用很感兴趣。 how complex systems interact with evolution.
一方面，你拥有几乎是自组织起来的复杂系统， So, on the one hand you have systems that almost organise themselves
这些系统的表现无法预期， as complex systems, so they exhibit order that you wouldn't expect,
另一方面，你仍然得使它们产生进化互动， but on the other hand, you still have to have evolution interact with
以此产生出某种能真正适应环境的东西。 that to create something that is truly adapted to the environment.
进化是没有意识的，却可以发展 Evolution's mindless, yet creative, power to develop
和塑造复杂系统，真神奇。 and shape complex systems is indeed incredible.
但进化在宇宙时标上 But it operates on a cosmic timescale.
从第一个生命到人类 From the first life on Earth, to us walking about,
用了35亿年。 took in the region of 3.5 billion years.
但我们现在拥有的设备 But we now have in our hands
可以在较短的时间尺度上模拟进化。 a device that can mimic this process on a much shorter timescale.
我说的是什么发明？ What is the invention I'm talking about?
也许你每天都坐在它的前面， Well, there's a good chance you've been sitting in front of one all day.
它就是计算机。 It is, of course, the computer.
现在的计算机每秒可以进行万亿次计算， Computers today can churn through trillions of calculations per second.
因此计算机能做一些特别的事， And that gives them the power to do something very special.
可以模拟进化。 They can simulate evolution.
更精确地，计算机能利用进化的原理 More precisely, computers can use the principles of evolution to shape
和改进自己的程序，大自然以同样的方式 and refine their own programs, in the same way the natural world
利用进化塑造并改进生物。 uses evolution to shape and refine living organisms.
现今，计算机科学家发现这种能进化的软件 And today, computer scientists find that this evolved software
能解决超出人类智力的问题。 can solve problems that would be beyond the smartest of humans.
在我们开创性的研究中，我们发现 One thing that we found particularly in our original research is how
进化作为一个系统、一种算法，在创造 powerful evolution is as a system, as an algorithm, to create something
极复杂和极具适应力的事物上非常强大。 that is very complex and to create something that is very adaptive.
Torsten和他的小组的目标 Torsten and his team's goal was nothing less
就是利用计算机化的进化 than to use computerised evolution
来创造一个能控制虚拟身体的虚拟大脑。 to create a virtual brain that would control a virtual body.
首先，他们开发了100个随机的大脑。 To begin with, they created 100 random brains.
正如你所见，它们不怎么样。 As you can see, they weren't up to much.
然后进化开始了。 Evolution then took over.
计算机选择了在身体运动上表现 The computer selected the brains that were slightly better
稍好些的虚拟人并培养它们。 at moving their bodies and got them to breed.
然后算法就选择表现最佳者， The algorithm then takes those individuals that do the best
让它们产生后代。 and it allows them to create offspring.
下一代运动最佳的虚拟人 The best movers of the next generation
被一起培养...这样一直持续下去。 were then bred together and so on and on.
惊奇的是，仅仅10代， Amazingly, after just 10 generations,
尽管有点摇晃，他们已经能走了。 although they're still a bit unsteady, the figures could walk.
最终，奇迹般地，你得到 Eventually, miraculously, you actually end up
能稳定运动的虚拟人。有点可怕的是 with something that works. The slightly scary thing
你不知道这是为什么。 is you don't know why it works and how it works.
看着虚拟大脑，你并不知道发生了什么， You look at that brain and you have no idea actually what's going on
因为进化对它进行了自动优化。 because evolution has optimised it automatically.
到20代，进化已经把“彼” In 20 generations, evolution had turned this...
改造成了“此“。 ..into this.
但很快，这些进化的计算机生命就远不止能走了， But these evolved computer beings soon went far beyond just walking.
它们开始能做一些事情了， They evolved to do things
这通常是不可能设计不出来的。 that really are impossible to program conventionally.
它们对意外事件有逼真的反应。 They react realistically to unexpected events.
比如遭到击打或跌到。 Like being hit or falling over.
即使我们设计了这些算法，当进化发生时， Even though we programmed these algorithms, what actually happens
我们就再也不能控制实际发生的情况了， when it unfolds live, we don't control any more
那些情况出乎我们的意料。 and things happen that we never expected.
感觉很有趣的是， And it's quite a funny feeling
我们编写的这些算法会自己做主。 that you create these algorithms but then they do their own thing.
一个不会思考的进化试验和错误过程 An unthinking process of evolutionary trial and error
has created these virtual creatures that can move and react in real time. 创造了这些能运动、会实时反应的虚拟生命。 has created these virtual creatures that can move and react in real time.
在此我们看到了精彩的试验证据， What we're seeing here is fantastic experimental evidence
表明了基于简单法则的系统的创造力。 for the creative power of systems based on simple rules.
看着计算机如何能无意识地进化出 Watching how computers can unconsciously evolve programs
能够做事的程序，没人能有意编写出来， to do things that no human could consciously program
这真是个自组织创造力的精彩例子。 is a fantastic example of the power of self-organisation.
由此证明， It demonstrates that evolution is itself
正如我们见过的其他系统， just like the other systems we've encountered.
进化基于的简单法则和反馈， One based on simple rules and feedback.
复杂性由此自发地出现。 From which complexity spontaneously emerges.
想想看，简单的规则就是：有机体 Think about it. The simple rule is that the organism
必须携带着几个随机的变异，并不断地复制， must replicate with a few random mutations now and again.
周围（复杂）的环境给出反馈， The feedback comes from the environment
最适合（某种环境）的变异得到加强， which favours the mutations that are best suited to it.
结果就出现了越来越多的复杂性， The result is ever-increasing complexity,
此过程并没有经过思考和设计。 produced without thought or design.
有趣的是，个体可以进化到 The interesting thing is that one can move up
有机结构的较高水平，一旦生物实际 to a higher level of organisation. Once you have organisms
拥有了某些模式，反馈过程 that actually have patterns on them, these can be selected for
就会对它们加以选择。 or selected against by processes which are essentially feedbacks.
进化本身、整个达尔文时间表， And so evolution itself, the whole Darwinian scheme,
从某种意义上说，就是正在发生的 is, in a sense, Turing again
图灵方程加上反馈的不同进程。 with feedbacks happening through different processes.
这是本故事核心内容。 And that's the essence of this story.
不用思考，简单规则就能无意识地创造出 Unthinking, simple rules have the power to create
惊人的复杂系统。 amazingly complex systems without any conscious thought.
在此意义上，计算机模拟人就是自组织的系统。 In that sense, these computer beings are self-organised systems,
就像别洛乌索夫在他的试验中所发现的， just like the one Belousov observed happening in his chemicals.
就像沙丘和曼德勃罗集， Just like the ones in sand dunes and the Mandelbrot sets,
我们的肺、心， in our lungs, our hearts, in weather
地球的地理和气候， and in the geography of our planet.
整个构思不需要一个指手画脚的设计者， Design does not need an active, interfering designer.
宇宙本来如此。 It's an inherent part of the universe.
混沌理论让人很不舒服的一点就是 One of the things that makes people so uncomfortable about this idea of,
自发产生的模式构造并不需要 if you will, spontaneous pattern formation, is that somehow or other
一个创造者（上帝）。而也许有一个聪明的设计师， you don't need a creator. But perhaps a really clever designer,
他能以某种巨大仿真的方式， what he would do, is to kind of treat the universe
来处理宇宙，只需设定好初始值 like a giant simulation, where you set some initial condition
让一切自然地产生出 and just let the whole thing spontaneously happen
它全部的奇迹和全部的美。 in all of its wonder and all of its beauty.
模式形成的数学显示出相同类型的模式 The mathematics of pattern formation shows that the same kind of pattern
在一个巨大范围内可以出现在不同的物理、 can show up in an enormous range of different physical,
化学和生物学的系统上。在很深的层面上， chemical, biological systems. Somewhere deep down inside,
它们都有着相同的数学起因。 it's happening for the same mathematical reason.
事实下面隐藏的美丽模式 Implicit in those facts are these beautiful patterns
四处可见。 that we see everywhere.
我认为，这是个很让人兴奋的想法。 This, I think, is a mind-blowing thought.
那么，我们最终学到什么呢？ So, what is the ultimate lesson we can take from all this?
宇宙的所有复杂性， Well, it's that all the complexity of the universe,
所有无限的丰富度， all its infinite richness,
都从简单的法则产生出来，一遍又一遍的重复。 emerges from mindless simple rules, repeated over and over again.
要记住，虽然这个进程强而有力， But remember, powerful though this process is,
但它本来就是不可预知的。 it's also inherently unpredictable.
所以尽管我能确信地告诉你未来会很惊人， So although I can confidently tell you that the future will be amazing,
带着科学肯定，我也可以说， I can also say, with scientific certainty,
我一点都不知道未来会怎样。 that I have no idea what it holds.
Chines subtitles BY metta@km
Subtitles by Red Bee Media Ltd Subtitles by Red Bee Media Ltd
E-mail subtitling@bbc.co.uk